Contrary to fears of a ‘localisation trend’, Aubrey Capital Management’s Rob Brewis believes global trade will continue to flourish, as Western manufacturers diversify away from China towards other emerging markets.
Russia’s attack on Ukraine and China/US tensions have brought many to the conclusion that the world is entering an era of localisation, where the West will bring its production closer to home.
But, according to Citywire A-rated Rob Brewis, who runs the Aubrey Global Emerging Markets Opportunities fund, globalisation is ‘very much alive and well’.
In his 2023 predictions for emerging markets, Brewis said exports for all major emerging markets have accelerated in recent years, as figures from the American Chamber of Commerce from early 2022 suggest 83% of companies have no intention of relocating.
‘There is inevitably some de-risking underway in global supply chains as manufacturers seek to diversify their production away from China, but this is all turning up in India, Vietnam, Mexico and Indonesia, to name a few,’ Brewis wrote in his outlook, adding that the development could be ‘very positive’ for most emerging markets.
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